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開放經濟下中國養老保險體系選擇及養老保險基金運作研究
畢業論文
開放經濟下中國養老保險體系選擇及養老保險基金運作研究
摘要：本文從薩繆爾森的疊代模型出發，從經濟學的角度對現收現付制、完全積累制以及部分積累制進行分析。認為在1個封閉式的經濟中只要最優儲蓄率能夠得到保證，養老金增長的物質基礎是完全1樣的，即養老金獲得增長的物質源泉只能是下1代就業人口的增長和他們勞動生產率的提高。但在1個開放經濟里，最優儲蓄率的討論就沒有意義了，因此經濟的全球化為養老體系從現收現付制向積累制的轉軌提供了1個有利的支持。進而引出經濟全球化下中國資本市場對外開放中養老保險基金的投資與回報率問題。隨著我國加入WTO6年以來資本市場對外開放承諾的逐步兌現，應該更多關注國際資本市場。國際資本市場上特別是發達資本市場的相對健康規范和安全，養老保險基金投資的前提和重點是要保證長期穩定的收益，在投資運作時應該謹慎地選擇最能分散風險的組合，達到在控制好投資風險的前提下提高投資的收益的目的。總的來看，文章從宏觀經濟學動態運行的角度，結合中國的實際情況，對上述問題作1個較為全面的經濟學分析，進而提出關于我國養老保險體系選擇及均衡運行的戰略性思考。
關鍵詞：疊代模型；最優儲蓄率；混合養老保險體系；國際資本市場
Operation of Endowment Insurance Fund in Open Economy of China
Abstract: This paper analyzes the pay-as-you-go system, total accumulation system, and some accumulation system, from the viewpoint of economics on the basis of the iterative model raised by Samuelson. This paper holds that in a closed economy, as long as the optimal savings rate can be guaranteed, the material foundation for the growth of pensions is invariable, i.e. the increase of the population under employment in the next generation and the improvement of their productivity, but in an open economy, the discussion on the optimal savings rate is pointless. Accordingly, the economic globalization provides a favorable support for the endowment insurance system to transform from the current pay-as-you-go system to the accumulation system. Thus, this paper puts forward the issue of the investment and redounding rate of old-aged pension as Chinas capital market opens to the outside world and on the basis of Chinas actual conditions makes a comprehensive economic analysis on the above question from the perspective of dynamic macro-economics. More attention should be paid to the international capital market, as more and more capital market is open to the outside world since our country joined the WTO five years ago. International capital market especially the developed capital market is comparatively healthy, standard and safe. The precondition and key point of the investment of endowment insurance fund is to guarantee the long-term profits, so when investing, we should choose the group which can spread risks to the largest extent in order to get more profits on the condition that the investment risk is under control. Finally, this paper makes a strategic thinking on the choosing and balanced running of endowment insurance system of our country.
Key words: Over-lapping Model; Optimal Saving Rates; Mixed Endowment Insurance System; International Capital Market
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